Not much sun, a dash of rain: Melbourne’s Christmas forecast is in

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Melbourne’s Christmas weather forecast is in, and sometimes it’s best to look on the bright side.

We won’t need to pack our umbrellas, nor will we endure oppressive heat. But there certainly won’t be a repeat of last year’s glorious conditions.

Melbourne won’t be basking in sunshine on Christmas Day, but there won’t be much rain, if any at all.Credit: Eddie Jim

The city centre is expected to hit a high of 21 degrees with light winds. Cloud will be lingering but is likely to be friendly: while there is a 30 per cent chance of rain, the Bureau of Meteorology expects there won’t be more than one millimetre of downfall.

Spokesperson Morgan Pumpa said Melbourne’s best weather was forecast for a few days before Christmas, when it will reach 26 degrees on Friday and Saturday.

“It seems that warmer system will be clearing the state, and we’ll see some easing in temperatures as we head towards Christmas,” Pumpa said.

“There’s a slight chance of showers in Melbourne on Christmas Day, so it’s worth keeping an eye on that for any outdoor festivities but we’re not expecting much rain, if any.”

Melburnians enjoyed a particularly splendid Christmas last year when the city basked in a still, 32-degree day with barely a cloud in the sky. That means this year will more resemble cloudy 2021, when temperatures didn’t rise above 22 degrees.

For those escaping down the coast, conditions in Geelong and along the Great Ocean Road are set to be similar to Melbourne, worsening marginally towards Warrnambool where there will be heavier cloud and a slightly higher chance of rain.

While still far from dire conditions, those in the Gippsland and East Gippsland regions are set for the worst luck statewide. Pumpa said there was a 70 per cent chance of up to two millimetres of rain.

“The winds will only be moderate but they will be southerly, meaning more chance of showers along our coastal areas,” she said.

And if you’re chasing sun, head north. Mildura and Swan Hill are expected to bask in sun with a top of 29 degrees, while a partly cloudy Bendigo could reach 24 degrees.

The other positive of this year’s Christmas forecast is that the bushfire risk appears promisingly limited.

Recent rains across Victoria, including in East Gippsland, have dampened concern among fire authorities, who say the amount of dry grass is nowhere near as bad as the Black summer of 2019. However, weather conditions can change quickly and authorities are urging Victorians to be prepared.

Cricket fans will be hoping any prospect of rain in Melbourne has evaporated by Boxing Day, with the bureau set to release its forecast for the day later on Tuesday.

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