Sunak rattled as new poll shows Labour advance across Tory blue wall

Labour leading in 42 historically Tory seats according to latest poll

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Rishi Sunak must regain control of the blue wall constituencies in southern England if he is to win the next general election as the latest polls show the Conservative Party now trails Labour. Despite a significant Tory victory in the 2019 election, in which the large majority of the 42 blue wall seats were won by Boris Johnson’s government, the chaos of the last premiership appears to have rocked their stronghold. Political journalist Anushka Asthana, reporting on ITV, showed that, according to a Redfield and Wilton Strategies poll, 44 percent of the blue wall would vote for the Labour Party in an upcoming election, while just 33 percent would vote for the Conservative Party. 

During Robert Peston’s ITV show, Anushka Asthana introduced the Redfield and Wilton Strategies poll for the 42 seats in the blue wall, which are affluent southern constituencies where Tories have traditionally won. 

She said: “In the 2019 election, the Tories were well ahead, second place were the Liberal Democrats and third were Labour. 

“But if you look at polling now, it is totally flipped. Labour are now in the lead in these seats. The Tories are second and the Lib Dems are in third place. 

“Interestingly, of the three leaders, Rishi Sunak has the current highest approval ratings rise in these areas as well.” 

But comparing the current data to previous polls suggests the Conservatives are trending in the right direction. 

While the new Government trails the Labour Party, both in blue wall polls and national surveys, the gap has narrowed since the appointment of Rishi Sunak. 

In terms of the blue wall, the Conservative Party made a five percent gain on the start of October, from 28 percent to 33 percent. 

On a national front, the Tories are up to 26 percent, having dropped as low as 21 percent earlier this month. 

Rishi Sunak’s approval ratings also appear to offer hope to the Tories, as his popularity now appears to be greater than the opposition leader Sir Keir Starmer. 

According to the Redfield poll, Mr Sunak’s net approval rating since becoming leader of the Party and Prime Minister is 22 percent, while Sir Keir’s is at 16 percent. 

Nonetheless, the positive trends only go a small way to surmounting the significant polling gap, and while the rise in the blue wall polling is a point of optimism, the Labour Party experienced a similar boost in October, from 41 to 44 percent. 

It appears that, following Mr Sunak’s appointment, both of the two major parties stole votes from the third-placed Liberal Democrats, who lost 8 percentage points in October, which means that the impact of the Tory surge was limited. 


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Before thoughts of appealing to voters are entertained, however, Rishi Sunak must deal with an unenviable intray of domestic problems. 

On November 16, a budgetary statement will be made to attempt to plug the £40billion black hole left by unfunded tax cuts. 

With inflation spirally out of control, interest rates rising and public services struggling under financial strain, the next few months of Government could prove crucial in winning over voters. 

Mr Sunak will also have to deal with the migrant crisis and his home secretary Suella Braverman, who has enraged MPs from all sides of the political spectrum over her alleged mishandling of the Manston migrant processing centre in Kent. 


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