Real Vision CEO and former Goldman Sachs executive Raoul Pal recently offered his perspective on the future of the global crypto industry.
Before founding the macroeconomic and investment strategy research service Global Macro Investor (GMI) in 2005, Pal co-managed the GLG Global Macro Fund in London for global asset management firm GLG Partners (which is now called “Man GLG”). Before that, Pal worked at Goldman Sachs, co-managing the European hedge fund sales business in Equities and Equity Derivatives. Currently, he is the CEO of the finance and business video channel Real Vision, which he co-founded in 2014.
Pal envisions an environment in which the sector becomes subject to tighter regulations. In the United States, he predicts a small number of major players will emerge, integrating with traditional finance and creating an oligopolistic market structure. Meanwhile, Pal expects that there will be only one or two dominant players in Asia, backed by the Chinese Communist Party and targeting the global South.
He also anticipates the rise of a global regulatory arbitrage regime that bridges the American and Asian markets, ultimately surpassing both in size. This projection mirrors the current financial system, which is molded by geopolitics, technology, and other economic forces. In Pal’s view, capital is adaptable and will always find ways to navigate these changing landscapes.
In another thought-provoking tweet, Pal touched on the difficulties society experiences in keeping pace with the rapid advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and its applications. He posits that this struggle could be attributed to the first real-world example of Reed’s Law in action. Reed’s Law states that the utility of large networks, particularly social networks, can scale exponentially with the size of the network.
Pal cautions that as other emerging technologies like the Internet of Things, robotics, genome editing, blockchain, space exploration, and 5G and 6G networks begin to intersect, the world will become even more chaotic. All of these developments fall under the same Reed’s Law umbrella. As they continue to evolve, individuals and organizations will find it increasingly challenging to keep up with the breakneck pace of innovation.
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