Can Hungary be kicked out of the EU? What it takes to give someone the boot

The recent diplomatic skirmish between Hungary and the European Union (EU) concerning Ukraine has thrust into the spotlight the intricacies of EU decision-making and the challenges posed by leaders such as Hungary’s Prime Minister, Viktor Orban. Amidst this diplomatic standoff, a pivotal question surfaces: Can Hungary be ousted from the EU? To answer this, we delve into the mechanics of Article 7 of the Treaty on European Union.

Decrypting Article 7 of the Treaty on European Union

Article 7 serves as a mechanism to confront and discourage member states from deviating from the core values of the EU, encompassing democracy, rule of law, and human rights. It unfolds in two stages: the preventive mechanism (Article 7(1)) and the sanction mechanism (Article 7(2)).

Preventive Mechanism (Article 7(1))

The preventive mechanism empowers the EU to address emerging threats to fundamental values. If a member state is perceived to be at risk of breaching these values, the EU can initiate a diplomatic dialogue. This process aims to foster cooperation and resolve concerns through diplomatic means, averting the escalation of issues.

Sanction Mechanism (Article 7(2))

The sanction mechanism comes into play if a member state persists in violating EU values despite preventive measures. The European Council, through a four-fifths majority vote, can determine the existence of a clear risk of a serious breach. Subsequently, sanctions, including the suspension of voting rights, can be imposed. However, a unanimous vote by other member states is required, making it a formidable and infrequently used option.

Orban’s Challenge: A Democratic Enigma

Hungary’s Prime Minister, Viktor Orban, has long been a contentious figure within the EU, voicing opposition to Ukraine’s accession and raising concerns about his commitment to democratic values. While Orban allowed the EU summit to launch talks with Ukraine, he blocked a substantial EU aid deal for Kyiv, showcasing his ability to disrupt diplomatic proceedings.

Unraveling Orban’s Motivations

Orban’s actions seem rooted in financial considerations, as Hungary heavily relies on EU funds to sustain its economy. Rule-of-law concerns have led to the withholding of billions of euros since 2021. Orban’s leveraging of Ukraine-related issues indicates an attempt to unfreeze these funds and secure a favourable economic landscape for Hungary.

Deploying Article 7 as a Check on Misbehaviour

Given Orban’s actions and the potential misuse of diplomatic tools, EU leaders must consider a robust application of Article 7 to curb misbehaviour. While triggering this “nuclear option” may be met with hesitation, it remains a viable mechanism to suspend Hungary’s EU voting rights and safeguard the union’s integrity.

Activating Article 7 Against Orban

With Hungary no longer shielded by Poland, EU leaders should communicate that triggering Article 7 is once again a viable option. This sends a strong signal that violations of democratic principles will not be tolerated, even if it involves a challenging decision to suspend voting rights.

Financing Kyiv: Exploring Alternative Avenues

To ensure financial support for Ukraine, the EU must explore alternative routes, such as an intergovernmental agreement among 26 states. While a less streamlined approach, it can bypass potential roadblocks created by Hungary and facilitate funds for urgent causes without compromising the EU’s enforcement mechanisms.

Tackling Structural Challenges in EU Decision-Making

The recent episode underscores structural issues within EU decision-making that demand urgent attention. As the EU contemplates expansion, evaluating the need for unanimity in all decisions and considering qualified majority voting can enhance the efficiency and agility of the decision-making process.

Strengthening Decision-Making Processes

EU leaders should reassess the necessity of unanimity in decisions, particularly as the union considers welcoming new members. Embracing qualified majority voting and allowing for flexible coalitions to advance initiatives can foster a more adaptive and efficient decision-making process.

In navigating the Orban challenge and the complexities of EU-Ukraine relations, the EU must strike a balance between unity and upholding democratic values. Article 7 emerges as a crucial tool to deter and address breaches of fundamental values, and EU leaders must be prepared to deploy it judiciously to ensure the integrity and stability of the union.

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