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Odds have been shifting on a near-daily basis throughout the early stages of the race, and now that both have accepted their party’s nominations, the race to the White House is heating up for Donald Trump and Joe Biden. UK bookies are currently putting the chances of Joe Biden winning at 51 percent, with Donald Trump 49 percent.
But the market has been tightening and at times swinging back and forth between candidates, with the race becoming almost too close to call with only two months to go.
Sam Rosbottom, Betfair Spokesperson said: “Already there is huge interest in who will be the next US President on Betfair Exchange, with over £70million wagered on the betting market.
“Joe Biden is the current favourite at evens, however almost 60 percent of the money has been bet on Donald Trump, who briefly went favourite yesterday for the first time in three months, and in the past 24 hours, his odds have gone out to 21/20.
“During the last election, back in 2016, a record £199million was bet, with over £75 million of that coming once the polls closed.
“Back then, Hillary Clinton was the 1/10 favourite on election day, and we all know what happened after that.
“Already this year we have seen some huge swings in the betting market, back in February, Joe Biden was 100/1 (just a one percent chance) to become the next US President, but as the months went on, the odds shifted in his favour, in August he had a 60 percent chance of winning, and since then his chances have decreased and it’s too tight to call.”
But despite the surge in backing via odds for Mr Trump, Mr Biden is holding a national seven point advantage over Mr Trump, according to a USA Today poll of registered voters.
The latest polling results come after the conclusion of Republicans’ nominating convention last week, when Trump denounced Biden as beholden to the “radical left” wing of the Democratic Party and warned the “American way of life” would be destroyed were he not reelected.
Mr Biden’s campaign aides have insisted in recent days they expected a tightening of the race as the general election campaign enters its final stretch, pointing to the political polarisation of the country’s electorate.
At the moment, polls in the battleground states look good for Mr Biden, but there’s a long way to go and things can change very quickly.
Mr Biden currently has a narrow lead in Arizona, a state only one Democratic presidential candidate has won in the past 70 years.
An even narrower lead is being held in North Carolina by the Democratic nominee, which has voted Republican in nine out of the last 10 elections.
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In Wisconsin, where Mr Trump won by a razor-thin margin in 2016, Mr Biden currently holds a five point lead.
In Florida, where coronavirus is currently raving, Mr Biden also leads Mr Trump by about five percentage points.
In the almost always red Texas, the difference in poll numbers between the two candidates is less than five percentage points.
According to Dan Kilbridge of bookies.com, the disparity between odds and polls is down to those wanting to swing the election for Mr Trump.
He said: “This means one of two things. It could be that oddsmakers aren’t leaning as heavily on polling to set their odds.
“Or it could be that a large number of bets have come in on Trump very recently to swing the lines in his favour.
“Regardless, betting odds are now dead even with the general election just two months away.”
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