Democrats concerned polls will repeat 2016 results
Robert Wolf and Charlie Hurt join ‘The Daily Briefing’ to weigh in on potential election results.
President Trump has narrowed the gap in his race with former Vice President Joe Biden, but still needs to win over certain voter demographics if he expects to maintain the presidency in November, according to a poll released Tuesday.
The Investor's Business Daily (IBD) and TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence (TIPP) poll was one of the few to accurately predict Trump's 2016 victory amid of sea of other data indicating the opposite would occur.
It recently found that Biden's lead slipped to a new low of 48.1% compared to Trump's new high of 45.8%. That represents a 2.4 point bump for the president and 3.8 point decline for his opponent since the poll was launched on Oct. 12. The poll also gauges support for third-party candidates but in a head-to-head matchup, the former vice president still beats Trump 49%-46.2%.
With just two weeks until the election, polling averages continue to show Biden leading Trump — albeit by a much greater margin than what IBD/TIPP estimates.
The poll indictaes that the president is garnering less support among certain groups than previous data showed for 2016. The IBD/TIPP poll highlights both seniors and suburban voters which propelled Trump's victory in 2016 but are currently dominated by Biden.
"Senior citizens are another key group Trump carried in 2016 that have swung toward Biden, but the gap has narrowed," IBD's Jed Graham wrote. According to Tuesday's report, Biden previously led that demographic by double digits, but that lead has fallen to a tight 48%-46%.
However, Trump tends to beat Biden with older voters more generally. For example, 56% of voters aged 45-64 favor Trump compared to just 40% for Biden.
Observers have generally warned about the impact of suburban women on this year's election, which Trump appears to be losing. Polling shows him trailing Biden by 50.2% to 42% among suburban voters — a stark contrast to the nearly 30-point lead he enjoys among those in rural areas and nearly 28-point lag he sees among urban voters.
And although Trump is seeing a deficit among women voters (54%-41%), he's doing slightly better than the 15-point gap he saw in 2016. Meanwhile, his lead among White voters has dropped by 2 points in comparison to 2016.
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