Where Biden and Trump stand in Pennsylvania in the polls 3 days out from the election

  • Pennsylvania, with its 20 electoral votes, is one of the biggest swing state prizes in the Electoral College.
  • In the Real Clear Politics national polling average, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden maintains a solid 7.8% lead over President Donald Trump (51.3%-43.5%).
  • In 2016, Trump won Pennsylvania by a slim 0.7% margin over former Secretary of State Clinton (48.2%-47.5%).
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As the US enters the final days before Election Day, pollsters have begun to release their final surveys.

In the Real Clear Politics national polling average, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden maintains a solid 7.8% lead over President Donald Trump, with Biden is averaging 51.3% of the vote, compared to Trump's 43.5%.

However, Biden will still need to focus on key swing states that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton lost in 2016, most notably Pennsylvania with its 20 electoral votes. 

In 2016, President Donald Trump won Pennsylvania by a slim 0.7% margin over Clinton (48.2%-47.5%). Trump did not secure a majority of the vote in the Keystone State, while each Democratic presidential nominee since 2000 (Al Gore, John Kerry, and Barack Obama) except for Clinton won at least 50% of the vote in the state.

If Biden can maintain his base of Democratic support and secure the lion's share of independent voters, he should be able to repeat past Democratic performances in the state. Turning out the vote in Philadelphia and its populous suburbs, as well as Pittsburgh, and winning back blue-collar areas like Erie County and Luzerne County will be critical for the Biden campaign. For Trump to have a shot at winning, he'll have to mobilize his conservative political base, especially in central Pennsylvania and the exurbs of Pittsburgh, to offset losses in the Philadelphia area.

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The final Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll released on Saturday showed Biden leading Trump 49%-44% in Pennsylvania, based on data from October 23 to October 28. The previous survey, released on October 23, showed Biden leading 51%-44%, so the former vice president's position hasn't changed very much.

Some key takeaways from the poll:

  • Nearly half (49%) of voters disapproved of Trump's performance, with 45% approving.
  • A majority (54%) of Pennsylvania voters feel as though Trump doesn't deserve reelection.
  • Poll respondents preferred Democratic congressional candidates over Republican candidates 46%-42%.
  • This pollster has an A+ rating from FiveThirtyEight.

On Saturday, Trump will headline four rallies across Pennsylvania, while Biden will give a speech in Philadelphia on Sunday, before campaigning in the state once again on Monday, the day before the election.

In the current Real Clear Politics average for Pennsylvania, Biden leads Trump 49.4%-45.7%, or by 3.4%.

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