December is shaping up to be the Covid pandemic's deadliest month yet in the U.S.

  • December is on pace to surpass April as the deadliest month of Covid-19 in the United States.
  • Slightly more than halfway into December, the month's death toll is already at 70% of April's count.
  • If the country reports an average of more than 1,300 daily deaths for the rest of the month, December will surpass the April total.

December is on pace become deadliest month of the Covid-19 pandemic in the United States, surpassing April when more than 60,738 Americans lost their lives to the coronavirus.

Hospitals across the U.S. are becoming overwhelmed and people are dying in record numbers once again — even as U.S. and state officials rush to get lifesaving vaccine doses across the nation. December is already the second-deadliest month of the pandemic in the U.S. with more than 42,500 Covid-19 deaths as of Thursday and with two weeks left to the month, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.

At the early height of the pandemic in April, hospitals in the New York City region were overwhelmed by Covid patients and doctors had little knowledge of how to treat them. The country also wasn't testing as many people for the virus in April, so the death toll for that month could be higher than original data shows, epidemiologists caution.

The U.S. is currently reporting an average of more than 2,600 deaths per day over the last week, putting the country on track to hit more than 80,000 Covid-19 fatalities this month if the current pace keeps up.

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Even the heroic attempts to inoculate some 20 million Americans this month won't be enough to stave off the wave of deaths epidemiologists see coming after the holidays. Both Pfizer and Moderna's vaccines require two shots and they take several months to fully kick in. Once they do, however, both vaccines are highly effective, providing more than 94% protection against getting the virus.

"We do have an incredible scientific achievement that healthcare workers across the country are benefiting from," Dr. Leana Wen, the former Baltimore health commissioner, said in a phone interview. "At the same time, we're also seeing unprecedented numbers of people getting ill, hospitalized and dying."

The country reported more than 233,200 new infections Thursday, according to Hopkins data, and more than 3,200 deaths. Many hospitals across the country are running out of available intensive-care units, standard beds and staff to handle the surge in patients, data published by the Department of Health and Human Services shows.

Large states like Texas, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and California have each reported nearly 3,000 deaths or more this month, driving a significant portion of the national total. But many smaller states have been hit disproportionately hard by the virus, with the Dakotas, Iowa, New Mexico and Kansas topping the list when adjusting for population.

Despite some signs of daily new cases slowing in the Midwest, new case counts are still increasing nationwide, hitting a fresh peak of nearly 217,000 average cases per day as of Thursday.

"Basically, what we're seeing now is the worst case scenario of what we predicted several months ago. This is the deadly winter that we thought could be the case if people did not take the actions necessary to protect themselves and their loved ones," said Wen, an emergency physician and public health professor at George Washington University.

Some state and local officials are implementing new restrictions to curb the spread of the virus and protect hospitals from being overwhelmed. California Gov. Gavin Newsom has issued orders that trigger restrictions when regions of the state reach a certain level of intensive-care occupancy. Several regions have triggered new stay-at-home orders.

And New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio in recent days has called for more restrictions, saying that "all forms of restrictions have to be on the table." He has floated the idea of imposing severe measures after Christmas, while Gov. Andrew Cuomo said lockdowns could be coming to New York City in January, if current trends hold.

As officials weigh new restrictions, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has called on Americans not to travel for Christmas and to limit all nonessential travel more generally.

"I'm extremely concerned about Christmas," Wen said. "There is such a high level of virus across the country and I just hope that people will keep in mind the end is not far away. We just need to get through this holiday and through this winter."

CNBC's Nate Rattner contributed to this report.

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