Bitcoin has surged past the descending trend line connecting the highs since March 7, signaling a short-term reversal from the drop. Price has also moved past the 100 SMA dynamic inflection point and might also be due for a move past the 200 SMA.
For now, the short-term moving average is below the longer-term 200 SMA to signal that the path of least resistance is to the downside. Price is currently testing the area of interest around $8400 and could still be due to resume the selloff below the trend line and onto the swing low.
Stochastic is also indicating overbought conditions, which means that buyers are already exhausted at this point and could let sellers take over. RSI is also in the overbought region and looks ready to head back down, so BTC/USD might follow suit.
But if price breaks past the next upside barriers, it could set its sights on the next area of interest at $10,000. From there, sustained bullish momentum could take it up to the next ceiling at $12,000.
The G20 Summit could prove to be a big event risk for bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as world leaders would share their stance on this industry. Welcoming more developments in the industry could still be positive for prices overall but a push for tighter regulation could lead to another leg lower.
As for the dollar, the FOMC decision could also cause some waves for BTC/USD. A 0.25% rate hike is widely expected but a cautious way of announcing this could still pave the way for USD losses. After all, a longer period of relatively low borrowing costs could shore up higher-yielding assets likes stocks and commodities or riskier ones like bitcoin.
Other central banks are also scheduled to make policy announcements this week, and any remarks pertaining to bitcoin regulation could also push prices around.
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